In his recently-published book, When Zuma Goes (Tafelberg), former Treasury researcher and political analyst Ralph Mathekga writes that “for Zuma to allow his fate to be decided by people who do not come from his corner within the ANC, the president would have to be severely weakened”.

While Mathekga’s is an incisive, comprehensive and timely analysis of the Zuma presidency, how it came to be and how under his watch the “man of the people” morphed into a rogue president who has “vandalised the exercise of authority” and assisted one family to capture elements of the state, it was written before the tumultuous events of the past two weeks.

Just to recap those in case you are having trouble keeping up. The outgoing Public Protector’s “The State of Capture” report hit the streets shining a sliver of light on what might turn out to be a chamber of horrors revealing the depth and breadth of corruption that has been allowed to flourish under the President’s watch.

The report was released on the Public Protector’s website with an attached transcript of a four-hour interview with President Zuma (the audio was later posted by eNCA – it makes for revealing if not depressing listening). On Monday President Zuma’s office issued a peculiar statement announcing that, “The Presidency has lodged a complaint with the Office of the Public Protector regarding the leaking of an audio recording of the discussions that took place during the meeting between President Jacob Zuma and the former Public Protector, Adv Thuli Madonsela, during her investigation into allegations of state capture, which was released on November 2016 as the State of Capture Report.”

So, essentially, the Presidency doesn’t object to us reading the transcript of the interview, only he doesn’t want us to hear it.

As Mathekga writes; “A true leader does not see it as a personal attack when asked to explain his motives. An honest leader takes the opportunity to tell their side of the story and builds trust through transparency. A dishonest politician declares war immediately when asked to explain motive. To be treated with doubt is something that is loathed by a crooked leader.”

And while Mathekga could not have anticipated that the interview between Madonsela and Zuma would be released in the public domain, this is exactly how the president comes across, seeking legal advice to answer the simplest of questions that are essentially not legal in nature.

Before the Wednesday’s release of the PP’s report, on Monday last week the Olympic back peddler, NPA head Shaun Abrahams, announced the withdrawal of one set of charges against Gordhan, former SARS commissioner Ivan Pillay and Commissioner Oupa Magashula.

On Friday, Abrahams, explaining his decision to Parliament’s Portfolio Committee on Justice and Correctional Services, let slip that Hawks head Lieutenant-General Mthandazo Ntlemeza had “begged” him not to drop the charges.

Ntlemeza has emerged as a blunt instrument in the “war” against Gordhan, hounding him relentlessly since the Finance Minister’s reappointment in December last year. The man who put spark to the flame was, of course, SARS Commissioner Tom Moyane, who lodged the original complaint in March 2015 with regard to the alleged SARS “rogue” unit.

Moyane is facing his own set of horrors as the net closes in on his handling of the Jonas Makwakwa matter and those suspicious payments to Makwakwa’s and his girlfriend Kelly Ann Elskie’s private accounts. That as well as the unseemly little hostage drama that played out in the boardroom of Moyane’s head office when senior Hawks members attempted to retrieve the exculpatory “Symington Memorandum”. It was this piece of vital evidence that led to the dropping of charges against Gordhan, Pillay and Magashula.

But the Hawks, while they should be focusing on what went down at SARS – including Makwakwa’s apparent illicit nest egg – were instead still digging for more dirt, anything, on Gordhan.

At the weekend City Press reported that the Hawks had a “Christmas present” in store for Gordhan and were preparing to charge him, again, this time for the establishment of the “rogue” unit.

On Monday morning the NPA was quick out of the starting blocks, issuing a statement that it was all a load of bollocks – “entirely without merit”, in fact – but then peculiarly added, “The investigations are currently under way and are at an advanced stage.”

Huh?

Mathekga’s opinion of the relentless threats to charge Gordhan is that “the intention was not to arrest Gordhan and expedite a criminal case against him. That would be senseless and might not yield the desired results for his detractors – Zuma and his allies. The intention is rather to keep the case alive, and to deliberately drag out the investigation with the aim of not having to make a decision to charge Gordhan. This strategy works well, because Gordhan knows that indeed that there is some truth to the allegations, but no evidence that would see him found guilty. This scenario will keep him preoccupied and somehow unsettled in his position as Treasury head.”

That was, of course, before ANC Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu’s comment on October 11, when the NPA originally announced the intention to charge Gordhan et al, that the Finance Minister is “an honest man”. It was also before Mthembu’s call on October 23 for the national leadership of the ANC to step down.

Before this, as Mathegka points out, Gordhan was isolated inside the ANC and had taken his battle outside the party, waging it on outside platforms.

“While some members of the ANC are happy to support Gordhan’s posture against Zuma, they are not committed to his strategy of waging war against the ANC through the media.”

He continues that the reason Zuma might not push for his lieutenants (literally) to take the case to court to try Gordhan “is that he knows the chances are that Gordhan will not be found guilty. In fact, the court might not even find it necessary for him to stand trial. Therefore, going to court might bring the issue to a conclusion, with the court finding the whole saga to be a flimsy political machination. Gordhan would at that point be untouchable and would indeed prevail against Zuma.”

Evidence of just how quickly things have moved since Mathegka’s still relevant book emerged hot off the press a few weeks ago is that since then Nehawu, the largest Cosatu affiliate, has called for Zuma to resign.

Then there was the march in the streets of the capital, Pretoria, on November 2 where opposition parties and the Save South Africa campaign galvanised citizens in a display of disgust and anger.

Add to this calls by ANC veterans for Zuma to go and an unprecedented show of support for Gordhan by Cabinet ministers including Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi, Tourism Minister Derek Hanekom, Public Works Minister Thulas Nxesi and Deputy Health Minister Joe Phaahla, joined later by former ANC Chief Whip Mathole Motshekga.

Motshekga – perhaps in an attempt to redeem himself after his shameful rubbishing of Madonsela’s Nkandla report – added his voice to the list on Monday, penning a long and rambling open letter to Zuma, saying he should take personal responsibility, heed his conscience, do the right thing, and so forth, and so on.

President Zuma bounced back at the weekend during a rally at eDumbe, lashing out at veterans and essentially announcing that he was not going anywhere. And if he were heading to jail, he was not afraid anyway.

“Even if I am arrested today. I am used to it. I was in jail for 10 years, so you cannot scare me,” Zuma reportedly said.

To which former head of the NPA Vusi Pikoli responded on Twitter, “In a constitutional democracy it should be a shame to go to jail! Under apartheid it was an act of heroism.”

In what must rank as an act of supreme cynicism the Sunday Times reported that the Hawks were also considering charging Deputy Minister of Finance Mcebisi Jonas, Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe and Treasurer Zweli Mkhize for “failing to report” Jonas’s claim to the Public Protector that he had been offered R600-million by the Gupta family as well as the top Treasury post before President Zuma appointed Des Van Rooyen in December 2015.

ANC MP Vytjie Mentor, another whistle-blower, said that the charging of Jonas, Mantashe and Mkhize “could very well be a calculated tactic to scare anyone else who were once offered an attempted bribe by the Guptas not to come forward as they too should fear that they will be charged”.

Considering the mayhem and the implicit as well as blatantly overt threats, this time round those who might find themselves at the sharp end of President Zuma’s desperate last throes might be tempted to break ranks and use the opportunity of the DA’s vote of no confidence to finally get rid of Zuma in the quickest way possible.

Speaker Baleka Mbete might be stalling to protect the president. But the extra time will provide space for those in the ANC who have woken up in the house of horrors to regroup and do something about it. Will self-preservation or principle be their guiding star this time?

We shall have to wait and see.

Mathekga concludes that, “When Zuma goes, everything will not suddenly get better. It might even get worse, unless the nation puts a stop to this, because the ANC clearly won’t.”

Meanwhile Ntlemeza’s days of sleuthing and hounding ANC members might soon be over. On December 6, about a month from now, the North Gauteng High Court will rule on an urgent application brought by the Helen Suzman Foundation earlier this year on the lawfulness of Ntlemeza’s appointment by President Zuma to head of the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation.

Police Minister Nathi Nhleko bumped Ntlemeza’s application in spite of comments by Judge Elias Matojane in February 2015 that Ntlemeza was “biased and dishonest” and lacking in “integrity and honour”.

The crossroads is upon us. Quo vadis ANC? The dustbin of history or the beginning of salvaging a once proud liberation movement. Your call. DM

Photo: President Jacob Zuma and ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe (L) toast the 102nd birthday of the ANC during the launch of the party’s election manifesto at the Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit, Mpumalanga on Saturday, 11 January 2014. Picture: SAPA stringer